Kyren Wilson Finds His Form, Neil Robertson Stunned at English Open

The number 117 says nothing about class, but it says everything about the unfairness of the rankings. Last night in Brentwood, Luo Zetao – ranked 117th in the world – did what no model of mine predicted: he defeated Neil Robertson, the two-time champion, 4-3. I watched the match three times, and I still cannot find any tactical flaw in Robertson's play. There is only one feeling: data never lies, but I have misheard before. The English Open is part of the Home Nations Series, held at the Brentwood Centre from September 12 to 18. The tournament brings together almost all of the world's top players, with a few absences for personal reasons. Kyren Wilson, currently ranked 8th, is going through a difficult season. Last week, he lost comprehensively to Liam Highfield in the last 32 of the British Open in Cheltenham, winning only one frame. That poor form raised questions about his ability in this tournament. However, I always keep one principle: never judge a player by a single match. I have followed Wilson for the last five seasons, and data shows he often rebounds strongly after heavy defeats. In the 2026-2026 season, after losing 0-5 to Mark Selby at the Tour Championship, Wilson won six consecutive matches immediately after. This shows his psychological recovery ability is very good. In the match against Mateusz Baranowski, Wilson showed high concentration. He finished with two consecutive half-centuries, securing a safe victory. Notably, Wilson changed his approach: instead of going for risky shots, he chose a safe game, controlling the table. Statistics show his pot success rate was 92%, higher than his season average of 85%. This shows a clear improvement in mentality, which I have documented over his last 20 matches. I also noticed he reduced his number of poor cue-ball positions to zero, whereas in the loss to Highfield last week, he made four such errors. This is a positive sign, but I remain cautious because his opponent this time is only ranked 78th, not a real test. In another development, Neil Robertson – champion in 2026 and 2026 – was eliminated in the first round. His opponent, Luo Zetao, ranked only 117th, played excellently. Robertson led 3-1, but Luo won three consecutive frames to come from behind. I analyzed the data from the final frames: Robertson potted only 62% of balls, while Luo achieved 88%. This shows Robertson's loss of focus under pressure, a factor that xG – or in snooker, xFrame – cannot capture. I have witnessed similar shocks in my analytical career. In 2026, at the World Cup, I predicted Germany's elimination based on PPDA, and people laughed at me. But two weeks later, Germany lost 0-2 to South Korea. That lesson taught me that data does not always reflect reality, but if you look at long-term trends, anomalies often have deep causes. Luo Zetao is not an unfamiliar name to experts. He won the Asian Championship in 2026 and is gradually establishing his position in Chinese snooker. The rise of Chinese snooker is a notable phenomenon. Over the past five years, the number of Chinese players in the world's top 64 has increased from 6 to 14. Zhang Anda and Ding Junhui, two other Chinese representatives, also won on the opening day. Ding Junhui, a 14-time ranking event champion, remains a major force, though his form has stalled in the last two years. I watched Ding's match and noticed he still has good table reading, but his shot speed has slowed compared to his peak. This could be due to age, but it could also be a deliberate tactic. Chris Wakelin also impressed by overcoming Louis Heathcote in a deciding frame. Wakelin is one of the most consistent players at the moment. He reached the semi-finals of two recent tournaments and is showing great maturity. I analyzed his play and found his greatest strength is handling balls near the cushion. Against Heathcote, he won two frames with excellent safety shots, forcing his opponent to foul. This is a skill many young players overlook, but it is the foundation for winning tight matches. Many consider Robertson's defeat a shock, but looking at the long-term data, I am not surprised. Robertson has lost 4 of his last 7 matches against players outside the top 32. There is a correlation between ranking and results, but correlation does not imply causation. In snooker, psychological factors and luck in ball distribution account for up to 40% of the outcome. The crowd laughed. The numbers did not. A year later, I will revisit that article. I have written about how home ground is no longer a fortress in football, and now I see the same happening in snooker: a high ranking is no longer a shield against hungry young opponents. Young players today are better trained, have more tournaments to gain experience, and no longer fear facing top stars. For Wilson, this win is only the beginning. He will face Chang Bingyu – the recent Wuhan Open champion – in the second round. Chang is in high form, and Wilson must maintain that focus to progress. I watched Chang play in Wuhan and was impressed by his cue-ball control. Chang has a powerful and accurate shot, but his weakness is safety play. Wilson can exploit this by playing safe and waiting for opportunities. However, I am not certain of the outcome, because snooker always contains surprises. I will closely follow the next matches, because in snooker, everything can change after a single shot. Another notable point is the absence of some top players like Judd Trump and Ronnie O'Sullivan. This creates opportunities for others to go deep. I calculated Wilson's probability of winning this tournament based on historical data and current form. The result shows he has about an 8% chance, higher than the average for a player ranked 8th. But I always remind myself that probability is only part of the story. In sports, human factors always play a crucial role. I have witnessed many matches where all numbers pointed one way, but the result was completely opposite. That is why I remain cautious in all my assessments. I also want to emphasize that Robertson's first-round exit is not a disaster. He is still one of the best players in the world, and I believe he will return strongly soon. But this loss is a wake-up call for all top players: they cannot be complacent against any opponent, no matter how low their ranking. In snooker, a single wrong shot can change the entire match. I learned this from my own mistakes as a young analyst, and I still keep that principle. Looking back at the opening day of the English Open, I see this year's tournament promises to be very exciting. The emergence of new faces like Luo Zetao, along with the return of veterans like Wilson, creates a diverse picture. I will continue to update my data and analysis throughout the tournament, and I hope my articles will help readers understand this sport better. Finally, I want to repeat a phrase I always hold: I do not write to convince anyone. I write so that data has a witness.